State Election Round 15 (2021–2025)
Popular Vote vs Seats
How closely each coalition's seats match its popular vote — the Gallagher disproportionality index, the winner's bonus and the effective number of parties (ENP) over time.
Gallagher index5.39▲ 0.46 vs previous
Effective parties (votes)3.35▲ 0.17 vs previous
Effective parties (seats)3.55▲ 0.06 vs previous
Winner's bonus+1.7 ptsPN
How to read this
- PN won 38.6% of the votes but 40.3% of the seats.
- Gallagher index 5.4: 0 means seats match votes exactly; above 10 indicates high disproportionality (common under first-past-the-post).
- The effective number of parties by votes is 3.4 — roughly how many serious contenders there really were.
Vote % vs seat % (%) State Election Round 15 (2021–2025)
Gallagher index Lower = more proportional
Effective number of parties (ENP) Laakso–Taagepera: 1 ÷ Σ(share²)
Votes & seats breakdown — State Election Round 15 (2021–2025)
| Coalition | Contested | Votes | % votes | Won | % seats | Gap (pts) | Vote % vs seat % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PN Profile | 487 | 4,711,944 | 38.6% | 209 | 40.3% | +1.7 | |
| PH Profile | 352 | 3,884,533 | 31.9% | 131 | 25.3% | -6.6 | |
| BN Profile | 353 | 2,535,642 | 20.8% | 112 | 21.6% | +0.8 | |
| Independent / no coalition | 660 | 766,162 | 6.3% | 37 | 7.1% | +0.9 | |
| GRS Profile | 55 | 286,389 | 2.3% | 29 | 5.6% | +3.3 | |
| GTA Profile | 44 | 10,190 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | -0.1 |
Indices for each election
| GE | Gallagher index | Effective parties (votes) | Effective parties (seats) | Winner's bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Election Round 16 (2026) | 16.30 | 2.41 | 1.78 | +18.2 |
| State Election Round 15 (2021–2025) | 5.39 | 3.35 | 3.55 | +1.7 |
| State Election Round 14 (2018–2020) | 4.92 | 3.18 | 3.49 | -0.6 |
| State Election Round 13 (2013–2018) | 4.82 | 2.24 | 2.25 | +4.5 |
| State Election Round 12 (2008–2021) | 8.31 | 2.50 | 2.54 | +4.3 |
| State Election Round 11 (2004–2016) | 21.60 | 2.17 | 1.26 | +25.4 |
| State Election Round 10 (1999–2011) | 16.79 | 2.19 | 1.63 | +18.4 |
| State Election Round 9 (1995–2006) | 15.89 | 2.15 | 1.40 | +19.2 |
| State Election Round 8 (1990–2001) | 13.64 | 2.50 | 1.79 | +15.6 |
| State Election Round 7 (1986–1996) | 21.91 | 2.20 | 1.30 | +25.2 |
| State Election Round 6 (1982–1991) | 20.11 | 1.93 | 1.48 | +20.1 |
| State Election Round 5 (1978–1987) | 18.93 | 1.99 | 1.66 | +18.9 |
| State Election Round 4 (1974–1983) | 27.27 | 2.00 | 1.28 | +28.0 |
| State Election Round 3 (1969–1979) | 10.64 | 2.27 | 2.45 | +7.5 |
| State Election Round 2 (1964–1974) | 21.52 | 2.74 | 1.69 | +24.1 |
| State Election Round 1 (1959–1969) | 14.02 | 2.24 | 1.80 | +15.4 |
Popular vote counts contested seats only; seats won unopposed count only as seats. "Independent / no coalition" includes non-aligned parties.